High possibility before the mid-term breakthrough

2022-09-23
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There is a high possibility before the breakthrough of glass in the medium term

in the early stage, the glass price maintained a narrow oscillation, and the fluctuation of trading volume and position was also limited to a small range. However, on May 28, the increase in intraday positions and volume of glass rose, which attracted market attention again. From all aspects, the glass price is still oscillating in the short term, and it is more likely to break through the previous high in the medium term

supply contraction constitutes a potential rebound factor

the spot price of glass continued to fall in 2014, and the survival of high-cost production lines in the industry was seriously challenged. In this case, in the second half of 2014, many production lines that have reached or are close to the kiln age maintenance period stopped production, which continued until the first quarter of 2015

in 2014, there were 38 cold repair production lines, with a total capacity of 130 million weight boxes, while the newly put into production capacity in 2014 was only 100 million weight boxes. So far in 2015, 22 production lines have been cold repaired, with a total capacity of 75 million weight boxes, while the new production in 2015 can be no more than 20 million weight boxes. Considering the resumption of cold repair and production of 50million weight boxes in 2015, overall, the net capacity loss of glass is 35million weight boxes

from the perspective of capacity exit and new capacity launch, capacity exit is mainly concentrated in the high-cost line in the north, while new capacity is mainly concentrated in markets with relatively good profits in Central China and southwest China

as the demand side of glass failed to recover, the market basically ignored the stimulation brought by glass de capacity to the market. However, the demand for glass is band based, that is, seasonal. The current glass market is not in the peak season. In this case, it is not objective to deny that the contraction of the supply side has no support for the market price. At this stage, the market has poor expectations for the future market, and the inventories of terminals and traders are in a very low position. Once the market improves, the glass market may have a short-term situation of short-term supply exceeding demand

demand side or short-term stabilization

in the long run, the domestic real estate market has entered a downward cycle, which is determined by China's population structure and the medium and long-term return on investment in the real estate market. However, in the medium-term market, the government is fully capable of changing the pace of real estate decline, and even reversing the market pattern in the short term. Under the current situation, shorting real estate is shorting government finance. Under the situation of stable RMB exchange rate, gradual interest rate reduction by the central bank and sluggish domestic inflation, it is difficult to short government finance in the short term, otherwise customers do not know how to operate, which seriously affects the effectiveness of customers' work

from a cyclical perspective, China's real estate market began to enter the real estate recovery period of the kichin cycle in April and may 2015, which can also be seen from the real estate transaction data. At present, transactions in the first tier cities have expanded and prices have rebounded, which has a good demonstration effect on the second and third tier cities. The transaction recovery of the real estate market can be maintained until the fourth quarter of 2015 in a short time and the third quarter of 2016 in a long time

if the demand for glass picks up under the pattern of stable macro exchange rate, low interest rate and low inflation, there will be fierce conflicts between supply and demand during the supply contraction period. The solution to this contradiction is a rapid rebound in prices

it should be pointed out that the long-term de capacity of the glass market has not really ended. Once the price rebounds, it will start a new journey to reduce production capacity. 3. Main technical indicators of wheel radial impact testing machine:. In the first half of 2015, the pace of new production capacity of glass was significantly accelerated. Under the pattern of gradually stable demand and even steady upward in North China, there will not be much lethality. When the market demand for glass coated with polyurethane sheath on the joint surface shrinks in 2016, the production capacity of the glass industry will be even more tragic

on the whole, the glass futures and spot prices are basically stable in the short term and may rebound in the medium term. It is not ruled out that the 1509 contract broke through the previous high and reached a new high

global glass () Department

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