China has become the leading factor in the change

2022-08-14
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China has become the leading factor in the change of the global coal market

recently, the China Coal Economics Research Association released a report showing that the world coal market maintained a cyclical recovery and rising trend in 2018, with the global coal output increasing by about 3.8%, the international coal trade volume increasing by about 1%, and the international thermal coal price reaching a new high. China will continue to maintain the world's largest coal importer, which will be the leading factor in the global coal market

global coal production increased by 3.8%

after years of adjustment in the depth of oil source maintenance of testing machines, the global coal market recovered slightly in 2017 and returned to a slow growth trend in 2018. According to the data of China Coal Economic Research Association, the growth rate of global coal production in 2018 was about 3.8%, a new high in recent years. In the more than ten years at the beginning of this century, the global coal output once increased at a high speed, with an average annual increase of nearly 5%. However, since 2013, the global coal has experienced a three-year period of in-depth adjustment, and the output has declined continuously. There were signs of recovery in the second half of 2016, and the global coal trade was gradually active. In 2017, the coal output showed positive growth for the first time. According to the data released by the International Energy Agency, the world coal output in 2017 was 7.549 billion tons, an increase of 3.1% over the previous year

in 2018, the strong driving force for the growth of global coal production mainly came from China and India. Data show that China's coal output in 2018 exceeded 3.546 billion tons, an increase of 5.2%, accounting for 47% of the world's total coal output. The second is India, with a coal output of 745 million tons, accounting for about 10% of the world's total output. According to the statistics of China Coal Economy Research Association, except the United States, Canada, Germany, Poland, Ukraine and other European and American countries, the coal production of the rest of the world's major coal producing countries has maintained a growth trend. Russia's coal production in 2018 exceeded the highest level in the former Soviet Union, while India, Indonesia and Mongolia's coal production reached record highs

it is worth mentioning that due to the continuous compression of natural gas and renewable energy, the consumption of coal in the United States has fallen to a new low in recent 40 years. The U.S. Energy Information Administration recently said that U.S. coal consumption may fall to 627 million tons in 2018, down 4% from 2017, a new low since 1979. The main reason is that as the competition between natural gas and renewable energy intensifies, it continues to occupy the proportion of coal in the energy market, resulting in the gradual elimination of coal-fired power plants, and the decline of coal-fired power generation capacity and utilization rate year after year, which also leads to the decline in U.S. coal consumption since 2007

Dai Sipan, chief economist of BP, said that there were both structural and cyclical factors in the global coal consumption in 2018. The most typical structural factor is India. With the rapid economic development and the rapid growth of energy demand, India naturally needs to use more coal. With low cost of coal, it is a competitive energy relying on aluminum processing projects such as An'an precision aluminum, Chenlong aluminum and Shenwei electronic industrial park. India's demand for coal should continue to grow. Among the cyclical factors, China is the most typical. "China's coal consumption has been declining in the past few years, but it increased slightly last year, mainly because the power demand growth was relatively rapid last year, and the growth of hydropower slowed down at the same time. In this case, coal had to be removed to play a balancing role in peak shaving." Dai Sipan said

China's coal trade accounts for 20% of the world.

in 2018, China continued to maintain its position as the world's largest coal importer, which is also the leading factor in the changes in the global coal market. According to the data released by the China Coal Economic Research Association, the global coal trade volume in 2018 will reach about 1.4 billion tons, with China accounting for about 20%. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported 281 million tons of coal in 2018, an increase of 10.5 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 3.9%; The export of coal was 4.934 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 39%. From the perspective of import source countries, China's coal imports are mainly from Indonesia, Australia, Mongolia, Russia and the Philippines, with a total of 274.16 million tons of coal imports, accounting for 97.5% of the total imports

India is the second largest coal importer in the world. According to the commodity import and export statistics released by the Ministry of industry and Commerce of India, the country imported 208 million tons of coal from January to November 2018, with a year-on-year increase of 16.3%. The annual import is expected to be close to 230 million tons, creating a new record for the country's coal import history

at the same time as this drug and agricultural products, coal imports from Western European countries such as Germany and Spain decreased, while coal imports from Eastern European countries such as Poland and Ukraine increased; The import scale of Japan, South Korea and other countries in East Asia remained basically stable; Coal imports from Vietnam and Thailand in Southeast Asia and India and Pakistan in South Asia increased significantly. It is estimated that the global coal trade volume increased by about 60million tons in 2018, with a year-on-year increase of about 5%

the data of China Coal Economics Research Association shows that under the influence of the "the Belt and Road" policy, coal consumption in relevant countries has increased significantly, including Vietnam, Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries and Pakistan, India and other countries in South Asia. Vietnam was once the source of China's coal imports, but it has become a net importer of coal in 2015. With the rapid economic development, the country's coal imports have increased sharply. In 2018, the coal imports exceeded 22million tons for the first time. Pakistan in South Asia has built large-scale coal-fired power plants in recent years, which have been completed and put into operation, and the consumption of electric coal has increased significantly. According to official statistics of Pakistan, Pakistan imported 13.684 million tons of coal in 2018, with a year-on-year increase of 94.9%. According to the prediction, Pakistan's coal import may reach 40million tons by 2025

international thermal coal prices soared

last summer's hot weather swept across North Asia. International thermal coal prices have risen sharply since last April, and major international thermal coal prices have set new records. Taking the price of thermal coal in Indonesia as an example, the HBA price in August 2018 was 107.83 US dollars/ton, a new high since March 2012. The annual average price in 2018 was 98.96 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15.2% over the average price of the previous year (85.9 US dollars/ton). In June 2018, the price index of thermal coal in Newcastle port, Australia was $118.09/ton, a new high since February 2012, up 41.2% from the same period last year. Excellent industry fundamentals have driven the share price of thermal coal suppliers to rise significantly, and large producers such as Glencore and Peabody have benefited from it. Peabody's share price soared nearly 30% last year

international thermal coal prices are closely related to China's coal import policy. As China continues to further promote the supply side structural reform of the coal industry, the national economy has made progress and improved steadily, and the coal price has remained high and volatile. Looking back on the trend of thermal coal market in 2018, before the Spring Festival, due to the low temperature in winter and insufficient natural gas heating, the daily consumption of coal has always maintained a high level, and the market supply of coal is in short supply, resulting in a large increase. At the same time, the international price of thermal coal has also risen; In the middle of April 2018, with the tightening of the import coal restriction policy, the price of thermal coal mainly in Australia and Indonesia fell sharply, of which the price of thermal coal in Indonesia fell below $90/ton

China's coal import policy may continue to benefit the international coal market in 2019. According to the prediction of China Coal Economic Research Association, China's coal import will maintain its current scale or increase slightly in 2019. Due to the strict implementation of the "horizontal control" measures of coal import by relevant national departments, the import growth rate in 2018 was limited to a certain extent. In 2019, with the increasing downward pressure on the domestic coal market and the limited increase in the world's coal resources, the coal import volume is likely to continue to maintain the existing import scale. If the state does not issue more stringent regulatory policies and working measures, the coal users in the southeast coastal areas will consider the cost, price and coal type, It is still possible to increase the number of coal imports by entering the fixed force (load) attenuation rate (range) set in the experimental scheme. Therefore, China's coal imports may increase slightly in the new year

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